Off-Season Effect Becomes More Pronounced, Iron Ore Prices Rise First Then Fall [SMM Commentary]

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Today, Dalian iron ore futures rose initially but then declined. The most-traded I2505 contract closed at 776.5 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.06% from yesterday. Traders mostly followed market trends for sales. Steel mills were cautious in procurement, primarily adopting a small-volume, multi-order purchasing strategy. Today's market trading volume was relatively low. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were around 770 yuan/mt, stable compared to yesterday; in Tangshan, PB fines transaction prices were at 785 yuan/mt, also stable compared to yesterday. According to today's SMM HRC supply-demand balance data, inventory remained in a slight destocking state. However, the apparent demand for rebar declined significantly. The overall inventory reduction of the five major steel products slowed. The off-season effect became more pronounced, and market sentiment weakened. In the absence of significant macroeconomic stimulus, iron ore prices are unlikely to find strong short-term support. A weak and fluctuating downward trend may continue next week.