Off-Season Effect Becomes More Pronounced, Iron Ore Prices Rise First Then Fall [SMM Commentary]

Published: Dec 26, 2024 16:49

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Today, Dalian iron ore futures initially rose but later declined. The most-traded I2505 contract closed at 776.5, down slightly by 0.06% from yesterday. Traders mostly followed the market trend in their sales. Steel mills were cautious in procurement, primarily adopting a strategy of small-volume purchases. Today's market trading volume was relatively low. Transaction prices remained stable compared to yesterday. According to today's SMM HRC supply-demand balance data, inventory continued to show a slight destocking trend. However, the apparent demand for rebar declined significantly. The overall inventory reduction of the five major steel products slowed. The off-season effect became more pronounced, and market sentiment weakened. In the absence of significant macroeconomic stimulus, iron ore prices are unlikely to find strong support in the short term. Next week, prices may continue to fluctuate downward.

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Today, Dalian iron ore futures rose initially but then declined. The most-traded I2505 contract closed at 776.5 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.06% from yesterday. Traders mostly followed market trends for sales. Steel mills were cautious in procurement, primarily adopting a small-volume, multi-order purchasing strategy. Today's market trading volume was relatively low. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were around 770 yuan/mt, stable compared to yesterday; in Tangshan, PB fines transaction prices were at 785 yuan/mt, also stable compared to yesterday. According to today's SMM HRC supply-demand balance data, inventory remained in a slight destocking state. However, the apparent demand for rebar declined significantly. The overall inventory reduction of the five major steel products slowed. The off-season effect became more pronounced, and market sentiment weakened. In the absence of significant macroeconomic stimulus, iron ore prices are unlikely to find strong short-term support. A weak and fluctuating downward trend may continue next week.

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